Spartacus' Law
Sir Niall Ferguson, Scottish-American economic historian has posited Ferguson’s law:
when a great power is spending more on debt service than on defence, it won't be great for much longer.
Now Sir Niall was talking about the US and its expanding deficits and debts but he has also studied France, England and other powers to come to Ferguson’s law.
Using this as a frame, allow me to posit Spartacus’ law:
when the sum of the Commonwealth’s debt payments and NDIS payments exceed payments to the states and territories, it is time to sell up and relocate.
Whenever there a Commonwealth budget, Table 6.3.1 is the first place I go in the budget papers. And this is Table 6.3.1 from the current budget:
Now the out year projections in this budget have the credibility of XXXX … I can’t say it for risk of defamation laws.
But let’s just say I have severe doubts that the NDIS and interest payments will come in anywhere near what is projected.
No way no how will the NDIS costs for this year be less than $55 billion. And interest costs of only $24 billion. Nah.
The budget estimated that debt by the end of year would be $934 billion. It’s only 5 months into the year and it’s already $950 billion.
And there was an assumption that interest rates would come down. Nah. No chance. And this assumes no drop to Australia’s sovereign credit rating.
Mark my words. There will be a day of economic reckoning very very soon. Before 2027-2028.
OMG. Does anyone realise that all this means that the Marxist Labor govenments really will run out of other people's money or already have. The untapped wealth held in our superannuation and, dare I suggest DEATH DUTIES, on the transfer of wealth from the much maligned Boomers to their Hairs (sic) will be too much to resist. Especially if our master's Defined Pensions are put at risk. Our children and grandchildren are Doomed.